Why Are Cases of the COVID-19 Delta Variant Declining in India, Indonesia and the UK?

Andy Slavitt, former adviser to President Joe Biden on the COVID-19 response team, said the drastic decline in COVID-19 cases in the UK and India could be a new paradigm around the spread of the coronavirus in society. On his Twitter account, Slavitt wrote: “Delta is going up fast and also going down fast.”

Mouab contacted Dr. LJ Tan, Chief Strategy Officer on Immunization Action Coalition or IAC. He assesses this phenomenon to be due to several factors acting simultaneously.

Health workers and their relatives carry the body of a man who died of COVID-19, from an ambulance to a crematorium in New Delhi, India, November 13, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui)

Health workers and their relatives carry the body of a man who died of COVID-19, from an ambulance to a crematorium in New Delhi, India, November 13, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui)

“At least in India, immunization continues to rise, so they vaccinate well. Their protocol against COVID-19 was also strictly enforced after the outbreak of the Delta variant, so these measures have had a dramatic impact on decreasing COVID-19 cases,” he said. .

Another factor that must be considered in the spread of infectious diseases is the symptoms of “ebbs and flows” or the repetitive pattern of the ebb and flow of the disease.

“As more and more people get sick and recover, and more people get vaccinated, the patient pool continues to shrink, and this has resulted in a decrease in infections,” said LJ Tan.

However, he continued, when immunity decreases, people who are infected at an earlier moment, they become part of a group that is susceptible to infection, their immunity weakens.

“And you see another spike. So the spread goes up and down based on the evolution of the virus, the group of susceptible people that goes up and down, and of course the intensity of vaccination,” he added.

Dr. Lily Widyastuti Hikam is a bio-medical science expert and research manager at PT Kalbe Farma. He believes that various pro-active steps initiated by the government and with strong support from the community have succeeded in reducing COVID-19 cases in Indonesia.

“I think this is part of the effect, one of which is PPKM and also increased testing and tracing in Indonesia, as well as the promotion of vaccination programs. Although it does not prevent transmission, this vaccine is very useful to reduce severe symptoms of COVID that make patients have to enter hospital, so they can recover at home by self-isolation. I think these three factors play an important role in reducing our COVID cases from July to now,” he explained.

The UK in mid-July also saw cases of the Delta variant of COVID-19 peaking, but dropping by more than 50 per cent in early August. In addition to the high vaccination rate, the performance of the country’s electronic tracking system is impressive.

Britons have been warned if they come into contact with someone with COVID-19. They will be “sent a ping tone” by the government to their respective cell phones. This tone means the recipient is obliged to self-isolate. This “Pingdemic” managed to warn more than 700,000 Britons to self-isolate. [jm/ka]

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