WTO Improves Global Trade Forecast

A resurgence of global economic activity in the first half of 2021 pushed trade in goods beyond its levels at the height of the pandemic. This led World Trade Organization (WTO) economists to increase their forecasts for global trade in 2021 and 2022, the AP news agency reported.

Speaking to reporters in Geneva (4/10), WTO Director-General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the world trade organization now expects the volume of world trade in goods to increase by 10.8 percent during 2021, and then by 4.7 percent in 2022. .

Okonjo-Iweala said, “Quarterly growth will slow in the second half of the year, as trading volumes approach pre-pandemic trends. Although not covered in the new estimates. trade in commercial services remains well below pre-pandemic levels.”

Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala at the WTO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland March 1, 2021. (Fabrice Coffrini/Pool via REUTERS)

Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala at the WTO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland March 1, 2021. (Fabrice Coffrini/Pool via REUTERS)

The WTO says other supply issues such as semiconductor shortages and congestion at ports could strain supply chains and weigh on trade in certain regions, but are unlikely to have a major impact on global trade. The biggest downside risk comes from the pandemic itself.

However, behind the overall strong increase in trade, there are significant differences between countries, with some developing regions falling well below the global average.

Okonjo-Iweala said, “The trade recovery is strong, but uneven, reflecting a K-shaped recovery (different communities experience different rates of recovery) in global economic output.

Some areas of the country that have access to vaccines and sufficient funds are recovering strongly, while poorer areas with large portions of the population that have not been vaccinated are lagging behind. Moreover, the economic outlook has decreased drastically.

The WTO also said the pandemic was far from over, and that new outbreaks and variants of COVID-19 could weigh on trade and production through 2022. [my/lt]

Check Also

China’s Military Power Is Expected To Overtake The US And Russia In The Near Future

A US military general warned that it was only a matter of time before China’s …

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *